Three Acts in the Circle of Fools
A data-driven strategist with 25 years of experience transforming large-scale data intelligence into scalable digital products. My career sits at the intersection of risk, analytics, technology, and innovation, consistently leveraging data to shape decisions, build products, and unlock new revenue.
I thrive where technology, strategy, and creativity meet—building systems, narratives, and solutions that turn complexity into competitive advantage and ideas into reality.
There is a script. It repeats with every new wave of technology—from process reengineering in the 90s to Big Data, from digital transformation to the cloud, and now to artificial intelligence. Those who know the script know exactly what comes next.
Act 1: The Prophet
A major consulting firm publishes a report announcing that a given technology will "revolutionize business," "redefine industries," and "create unlimited value." The numbers are impressive, the case studies seductive, and the language is carefully calibrated to provoke in executives a mix of euphoria and fear — euphoria for the opportunity, fear of falling behind. CEOs take the report to the board. Budgets are approved. The hype reaches stratospheric heights.
Act 2: The Diagnosis
Some time later, the same consultancy — or an equally well-positioned competitor — publishes a new study. This time, the tone is alarming: "60% of companies achieved little or no benefit from the technology." Leaders are getting it wrong. Execution discipline is weak. Initiatives are fragmented. The potential isn’t being realized. It’s a widespread failure — conveniently documented, measured, and categorized.
Act 3: The Cure
And then, as if by magic, the solutions arrive. A framework. A maturity model. Five barriers the CEO must overcome. Ten steps to a successful transformation. And, of course, a team of highly qualified specialists — from the same consulting firm — ready to guide your company along the right path. At the right price.
The cycle is complete. And it’s perfect.
The Elegance of the Model
What makes this model so effective is that it isn’t, technically, dishonest. The technologies in question often have real potential. The implementation problems highlighted in the reports are genuine. The frameworks have some practical usefulness. But all of this is presented within a carefully constructed commercial architecture, where the same actor who inflates the expectation diagnoses the failure and sells the solution. It’s a business that profits twice from the same product: first from hype, then from disappointment.
Gartner — another consulting firm — even has a nice name for this phenomenon: the Hype Cycle. A model that describes, with academic precision, exactly the cycle the consulting industry itself is a major driver of. There’s almost poetical irony in that.
Who Pays the Bill
In financial market theory there’s the concept of the "greater fool" — the idea that an overvalued asset can keep rising as long as someone is willing to pay more for it. The last to buy, not realizing the cycle has ended, is the greatest fool in history. In the corporate world, that role is often filled by companies that arrive late to the hype, invest heavily to avoid falling behind, and reap, instead of the promised transformation, a hefty consulting bill and a project abandoned on the shelf.
The problem isn’t the technology itself, but the ecosystem that forms around it — an ecosystem with clear financial incentives to keep the cycle turning, regardless of how many companies get left behind.
The Question Nobody Asks
Before hiring the consulting firm that diagnosed your problem, one simple question: who commissioned the study that created the problem? And whom does it serve?
Technological innovation is real. AI will transform processes, markets, and organizations — that’s not up for debate. What deserves scrutiny is the industry that has specialized in turning every technological advance into a three-act product: the hype, the failure, and the salvation. Always with the same seller playing all three roles.
The script is old. The setting changes. And the audience keeps paying to watch.
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